Project where your bankroll lands. Pick a stake strategy, edge, and number of bets — see the expected growth curve and variance.
Expected Bankroll — where your bankroll lands on average after 90 days, assuming you reinvest winnings (compound growth).
Bet Size ($288) — how much to wager per bet right now. This adjusts as your bankroll changes — always bet 2.9% of your current balance.
Kelly Criterion — a formula that maximizes long-term growth. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile. Half Kelly sacrifices ~25% of growth for ~50% less variance — most pros use ¼ to ½ Kelly.
Monte Carlo Sims — each colored line in the chart is one possible future. Same edge, same strategy — just different luck. The spread shows how much variance to expect.
Log scale · bands show likely outcome range
Disclaimer: These projections are mathematical estimates based on the Kelly Criterion and the inputs you provide. They are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results will vary significantly based on many factors including but not limited to: sportsbook account limitations and bet restrictions, changes in line availability and market conditions, variance and losing streaks inherent to sports betting, bankroll discipline and emotional decision-making, and changes in model accuracy over time. Sportsbooks may limit or restrict your account at any time, which can materially impact your ability to place bets at the sizes and frequencies modeled here. Past performance of our picks does not guarantee future results. Sports betting involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. This tool is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Bankroll growth is what actually matters in sports betting. EV per bet is the building block, but how it compounds depends on stake size, win rate, and number of bets. Small differences in edge create huge differences over thousands of wagers.
Use this calculator to project where your bankroll ends up under different assumptions. The output makes the case for Kelly sizing on +EV bets and shows why flat-staking 1% / 2% units works as a simpler approximation when your edge estimate is uncertain.