Question 1

Are pick'em apps profitable?

Accepted Answer

They can be — if you're consistently picking better than ~55–56% per leg on +EV plays at the popular 4-pick and 5-pick contest sizes. Most casual users hit closer to 50%, which is well below the breakeven threshold.

Question 2

What's the breakeven hit rate per pick?

Accepted Answer

It depends on the contest size and payout multiplier. The formula is p = M^(-1/N) where M is the payout multiplier and N is the number of picks. As a rule of thumb: 2-pick at 3x → ~58%, 3-pick at 6x → ~55%, 4-pick at 10x → ~56%, 5-pick at 20x → ~55%, 6-pick at 35x → ~55%.

Question 3

Are flex plays worth the lower payout?

Accepted Answer

It's a combinatorics problem — there's no universal cutoff. Flex EV sums over every partial-hit outcome (k of N hits, weighted by C(N,k) × p^k × (1−p)^(N−k) × payout(k)), while power EV is just p^N × payout. Whether flex or power has higher EV depends entirely on the specific contest's payout schedule, which varies by app and pick count. There IS a crossover hit rate where they tie, but it's contest-specific. Plug your real payouts into the calculator above and it'll do the math for you.

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