This is a step-by-step method for playing Underdog Pick'em with an edge. Each step has the math behind it.
Step 1: Claim the Deposit Match
Sign up for Underdog Sports with code SFD. Your first deposit is matched 50%, up to $1,000 in bonus funds, so a $2,000 deposit gets you $1,000 in bonus funds. (In CT, HI, ID, IA, LA, ME, MT, and WA the match is 25%, up to $250.) The terms matter: you must play through the deposit plus the bonus (1x) within 14 days, and unused bonus funds expire. So the bonus is worth what you will actually play in two weeks, not its face value.
Underdog Deposit Match
You Deposit
$2,000
Your bankroll
They Give You
$1,000
Bonus funds
Your Balance
$3,000
To work with
A 50% first-deposit match, up to $1,000 in bonus funds, with code SFD (25% up to $250 in CT, HI, ID, IA, LA, ME, MT, WA). Deposit + bonus must be played through 1x within 14 days; unused bonus funds expire and are not withdrawable.
Deposit what you will genuinely play through in 14 days. A bigger deposit means a bigger match, but a match you cannot play through is forfeited, not banked. New users can also play Keep Your Million: a virtual $1,000,000 pot that you split between higher and lower on each of 20 player questions, keeping whatever sits on the winning side. Finish all 20 within 60 days and whatever is left is paid out; bust to $0 and the game ends.
Trading involves risk, including total loss on positions. Content is promotional and not a recommendation to trade. Promotion issued by affiliate. Terms apply.
Step 2: Get SickFade Picks
Open SickFade on the web app or download it on iOS. Go to Underdog Picks -- here's what the channel looks like in the app:
Sharp Edge+ finds projections where Underdog's number is softer than the sharp market price. Stat Model uses our statistical models to predict player performance, and has a lower-only channel for players projected to come in lower.
Use picks from both. When Sharp Edge+ and Stat Model agree on the same pick, your edge is even bigger.
Step 3: Play 2-Pick Entries at 3.5x
This is the most important part. The 2-pick at 3.5x payout is the optimal format.
Standard Entries
| Format | Payout | Per-Pick Odds | Breakeven |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-pickBEST | 3.5x | -115 | 53.5% |
| 3-pick | 6.5x | -115 | 53.6% |
| 4-pick | 10x | -128 | 56.2% |
| 5-pick | 20x | -122 | 54.9% |
Flex Entries
Flex lets you miss picks and still get paid. Lower top-end payout, but a safety net on 1-2 wrong picks.
| Format | Payout | Per-Pick Odds | Breakeven |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-flex | 3.25x, 1.09x | -124 | 55.4% |
| 4-flex | 6x, 1.5x | -122 | 55.0% |
| 5-flex | 10x, 2.5x | -121 | 54.7% |
| 6-flex | 25x, 2.6x, 0.25x | -117 | 53.8% |
Standard entries are all-or-nothing -- every pick must hit. At 3.5x for 2 picks, each pick only needs to win 53.5% of the time -- same as a -115 price in a market. Flex entries pay less up top but give you a cushion if 1-2 picks miss. The breakeven column shows the per-pick hit rate needed to break even across all payout tiers.
IMPORTANT
Always verify the payout shows 3.5x before submitting a 2-pick. If Underdog changes the payout to anything else, don't submit the entry.
Payouts as of March 5, 2026 -- Underdog may change these at any time.
Why 2-pick 3.5x is optimal:
- Best risk/reward ratio. You only need 2 picks to hit. Fewer picks = a higher hit rate = more consistent results.
- 3.5x payout is mathematically favorable. At 3.5x, you only need to win ~29% of your entries to break even. With +EV picks, the math is on your side.
- Lower variance. Compared to 5 or 6 pick formats, 2-pick entries smooth out your results faster.
- More entries per day = more volume. You can run 5-10 separate 2-pick entries per day instead of 1-2 big flex entries. More volume means your edge kicks in faster.
Always verify the payout is 3.5x before submitting. Underdog sometimes adjusts payouts. If it's showing anything other than 3.5x on a 2-pick entry, don't submit it.
Always verify the projection matches before submitting. If SickFade shows a pick at 34.5 but Underdog has it at 33.5, don't submit it -- the number has moved and the edge may no longer exist. The pick is only +EV at the specific number shown. If the projection doesn't match, skip it and move to the next one.
Optimally, use each player only once across your entries for a given slate, and avoid pairing two players from the same game. Underdog may nerf your payout or block the entry if they detect correlated picks. More importantly, keeping every entry independent reduces variance and gets you to the long run faster -- which is the whole point.
Step 4: Size Your Entries
With a $3,000 balance ($2,000 deposit + $1,000 in bonus funds), here's how to size:
Entry Sizing -- $3,000 Balance
Each 2-pick entry needs 2 unique players. Run as many entries as the slate allows -- more volume = faster results.
| Per Entry | % of Bankroll | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| $25 | ~1% | Low |
| $50 | ~2% | Medium |
| $100 | ~3% | High |
| $200 | ~7% | Aggressive |
Entries per day depends on the game slate and available +EV picks. Big slates (10+ games) = more unique players = more entries. No player overlap allowed per entry.
Start with $25-$50 per entry for the safest approach. If you can afford to redeposit or are comfortable with more risk, $100-$200 per entry moves faster but requires a bigger stomach for swings. Run as many entries as the slate allows -- each entry needs 2 unique players, so bigger game days mean more volume.
Visit the SickFade bankroll calculator to dial in your exact sizing.
Step 5: Size Proportionally
SickFade grades every pick automatically. Track your results in the app and let the math work.
As your bankroll changes, size your entries proportionally. A $4,000 bankroll means $40-$80 per entry instead of $25-$50, and a smaller bankroll means smaller entries. Proportional sizing is what keeps variance survivable.
The Math
The deposit match gives you up to $1,000 in bonus funds on day one, to be played through within 14 days. From there it is a math-driven approach: play model-backed edges in the format with the lowest breakeven, and keep every entry independent.
Key Takeaways
- Claim the match with code SFD -- 50% up to $1,000 in bonus funds; play through deposit + bonus within 14 days
- Use SickFade -- Sharp Edge+ and Stat Model picks for Underdog
- Play 2-pick entries at 3.5x -- always verify the 3.5x payout before submitting
- Play $25-$50 per entry -- run 5-10 entries per day
- Size proportionally -- adjust entry sizes as your bankroll changes
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