BetMGM track record
Every BetMGM pick SickFade has posted, graded model by model, including the ones that lose. Updated hourly.
Best model ROI
+3.9%
Stat Model (Unders) · 7,628 picks
ROI, all models
+1.2%
72,790 graded picks
Units, all models
+814.4u
Models in profit
4 of 4
each with 1,000+ picks
“All models” combines every model on BetMGM, including the ones that lose. Graded at 1 unit per pick, the price when we first posted it, and each model's minimum edge (3% for most, 1% on exchanges).
How to read these numbers
The numbers
- Units
- Each pick is graded as a 1-unit bet. +100u means up 100 bets' worth.
- ROI
- Profit per unit bet. +3% is 3 cents per dollar over time; the ± is the likely range.
What counts
- Edge threshold
- Only counts when our fair price beat the book by the model's minimum: 3% for most, 1% on exchanges.
- Pushes
- Ties. In the record, but not in hit rate or ROI.
How to judge it
- Sample size
- Judge a model on 1,000+ picks, not a weekend.
- Losing stretches
- Losing weeks, even months, are normal for a model with a real edge.
New to this? Here's how value betting works, explained with one example.
Best BetMGM model with 1,000+ picks
MGM Picks: Stat Model (Unders): 7,628 picks, +277.3u, +3.9% ROI. Every model is in the table below.
Every BetMGM model
- Stat Model (Unders)3%+ edge7,62853.5%+277.3u+3.9% ROI · 7,628+3.9%±2.3
- Sharp Edge+3%+ edge19,61353.4%+336.1u+1.9% ROI · 19,613+1.9%±1.4
- Stat Model3%+ edge11,20452.4%+138.8u+1.3% ROI · 11,204+1.3%±1.9
- Sharp Edge3%+ edge34,34552.5%+62.1u+0.2% ROI · 34,345+0.2%±1.1
Get the BetMGM picks that beat the fair price
SickFade compares every prop against a fair price built from the books with the best track record, and flags the ones that beat it. Every play is graded here, wins and losses.
Pro is $4.99/mo for your first 3 months, then $24.99/mo. Cancel anytime.
Not sure what +EV means? Read the 7-minute explainer.
Learn how it works
Short guides that explain the numbers on this page.
- Start here · 7 min readWhat Is Expected Value (EV) in Sports Betting?Value betting explained with one example: why the same bet has different prices, why the best price is not always +EV, how a fair price is built, and how arbitrage works.
- Guide 2 · 6 min readWhat Is a Unit in Sports Betting? Why Pros Never Talk in DollarsA unit is your standard bet size as a percentage of bankroll. Here is why tracking results in units, not dollars, is the honest way to measure betting performance.
- Guide 3 · 8 min readDo Sharps Bet Parlays?Parlays amplify your edge, but they also raise variance, which slows bankroll growth. We work the math on 2 straights vs 1 parlay and show exactly where each one wins.
- Guide 4Are overs or unders better?Player prop ROI by side and sport, from our graded picks.
Other sportsbooks
Past results don't guarantee future results. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.