Bovada track record
Every Bovada pick SickFade has posted, graded model by model, including the ones that lose. Updated hourly.
Best model ROI
+5.6%
Sharp Edge+ · 15,425 picks
ROI, all models
+4.5%
53,436 graded picks
Units, all models
+2280.2u
Models in profit
4 of 4
each with 1,000+ picks
“All models” combines every model on Bovada, including the ones that lose. Graded at 1 unit per pick, the price when we first posted it, and each model's minimum edge (3% for most, 1% on exchanges).
How to read these numbers
The numbers
- Units
- Each pick is graded as a 1-unit bet. +100u means up 100 bets' worth.
- ROI
- Profit per unit bet. +3% is 3 cents per dollar over time; the ± is the likely range.
What counts
- Edge threshold
- Only counts when our fair price beat the book by the model's minimum: 3% for most, 1% on exchanges.
- Pushes
- Ties. In the record, but not in hit rate or ROI.
How to judge it
- Sample size
- Judge a model on 1,000+ picks, not a weekend.
- Losing stretches
- Losing weeks, even months, are normal for a model with a real edge.
New to this? Here's how value betting works, explained with one example.
Best Bovada model with 1,000+ picks
Bovada Picks: Sharp Edge+: 15,425 picks, +814.6u, +5.6% ROI. Every model is in the table below.
Every Bovada model
- Sharp Edge+3%+ edge15,42549.3%+814.6u+5.6% ROI · 15,425+5.6%±1.8
- Stat Model (Unders)3%+ edge7,44749.2%+364.2u+5.1% ROI · 7,447+5.1%±2.5
- Sharp Edge3%+ edge20,58449.4%+800.3u+4.1% ROI · 20,584+4.1%±1.5
- Stat Model3%+ edge9,98049.3%+301.0u+3.2% ROI · 9,980+3.2%±2.2
Get the Bovada picks that beat the fair price
SickFade compares every prop against a fair price built from the books with the best track record, and flags the ones that beat it. Every play is graded here, wins and losses.
Pro is $4.99/mo for your first 3 months, then $24.99/mo. Cancel anytime.
Not sure what +EV means? Read the 7-minute explainer.
Learn how it works
Short guides that explain the numbers on this page.
- Start here · 7 min readWhat Is Expected Value (EV) in Sports Betting?Value betting explained with one example: why the same bet has different prices, why the best price is not always +EV, how a fair price is built, and how arbitrage works.
- Guide 2 · 6 min readWhat Is a Unit in Sports Betting? Why Pros Never Talk in DollarsA unit is your standard bet size as a percentage of bankroll. Here is why tracking results in units, not dollars, is the honest way to measure betting performance.
- Guide 3 · 8 min readDo Sharps Bet Parlays?Parlays amplify your edge, but they also raise variance, which slows bankroll growth. We work the math on 2 straights vs 1 parlay and show exactly where each one wins.
- Guide 4Are overs or unders better?Player prop ROI by side and sport, from our graded picks.
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Past results don't guarantee future results. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.