Prop Builder track record
Every Prop Builder pick SickFade has posted, graded model by model, including the ones that lose. Updated hourly.
Best model ROI
+1.5%
Stat Model (Unders) · 8,446 picks
ROI, all models
-2.2%
55,958 graded picks
Units, all models
-1117.9u
Models in profit
2 of 5
each with 1,000+ picks
“All models” combines every model on Prop Builder, including the ones that lose. Graded at 1 unit per pick, the price when we first posted it, and each model's minimum edge (3% for most, 1% on exchanges).
How to read these numbers
The numbers
- Units
- Each pick is graded as a 1-unit bet. +100u means up 100 bets' worth.
- ROI
- Profit per unit bet. +3% is 3 cents per dollar over time; the ± is the likely range.
What counts
- Edge threshold
- Only counts when our fair price beat the book by the model's minimum: 3% for most, 1% on exchanges.
- Pushes
- Ties. In the record, but not in hit rate or ROI.
How to judge it
- Sample size
- Judge a model on 1,000+ picks, not a weekend.
- Losing stretches
- Losing weeks, even months, are normal for a model with a real edge.
New to this? Here's how value betting works, explained with one example.
Best Prop Builder model with 1,000+ picks
Prop Builder: Stat Model (Unders): 8,446 picks, +120.0u, +1.5% ROI. Every model is in the table below.
Every Prop Builder model
- Stat Model (Unders)3%+ edge8,44653.7%+120.0u+1.5% ROI · 8,446+1.5%±2.1
- Sharp Edge+3%+ edge6,90356.4%+56.1u+0.9% ROI · 6,903+0.9%±2.2
- Stat Model3%+ edge12,36652.2%-1.6u0.0% ROI · 12,3660.0%±1.8
- Stat Model (w/o clv adjustment)1%+ edge6,95951.1%-10.9u-0.2% ROI · 6,959-0.2%±2.4
- Sharp Edge3%+ edge21,28444.7%-1281.4u-6.5% ROI · 21,284-6.5%±1.9
Get the Prop Builder picks that beat the fair price
SickFade compares every prop against a fair price built from the books with the best track record, and flags the ones that beat it. Every play is graded here, wins and losses.
Pro is $4.99/mo for your first 3 months, then $24.99/mo. Cancel anytime.
Not sure what +EV means? Read the 7-minute explainer.
Learn how it works
Short guides that explain the numbers on this page.
- Start here · 7 min readWhat Is Expected Value (EV) in Sports Betting?Value betting explained with one example: why the same bet has different prices, why the best price is not always +EV, how a fair price is built, and how arbitrage works.
- Guide 2 · 6 min readWhat Is a Unit in Sports Betting? Why Pros Never Talk in DollarsA unit is your standard bet size as a percentage of bankroll. Here is why tracking results in units, not dollars, is the honest way to measure betting performance.
- Guide 3 · 8 min readDo Sharps Bet Parlays?Parlays amplify your edge, but they also raise variance, which slows bankroll growth. We work the math on 2 straights vs 1 parlay and show exactly where each one wins.
- Guide 4Are overs or unders better?Player prop ROI by side and sport, from our graded picks.
Other models
Past results don't guarantee future results. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.