ProphetX track record

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Every ProphetX pick SickFade has posted, graded model by model, including the ones that lose. Updated hourly.

Best model ROI

-0.2%

Sharp Edge+ · 17,066 picks

ROI, all models

-3.2%

72,695 graded picks

Units, all models

-2172.6u

Models in profit

0 of 4

each with 1,000+ picks

“All models” combines every model on ProphetX, including the ones that lose. Graded at 1 unit per pick, the price when we first posted it, and each model's minimum edge (3% for most, 1% on exchanges).

How to read these numbersUnits, ROI, sample size

The numbers

Units: Each pick is graded as a 1-unit bet. +100u means up 100 bets' worth.
ROI: Profit per unit bet. +3% is 3 cents per dollar over time; the ± is the likely range.

What counts

Edge threshold: Only counts when our fair price beat the book by the model's minimum: 3% for most, 1% on exchanges.
Pushes: Ties. In the record, but not in hit rate or ROI.

How to judge it

Sample size: Judge a model on 1,000+ picks, not a weekend.
Losing stretches: Losing weeks, even months, are normal for a model with a real edge.

New to this? Here's how value betting works, explained with one example.

Best ProphetX model with 1,000+ picks

ProphetX Picks: Sharp Edge+: 17,066 picks, -34.2u, -0.2% ROI. Every model is in the table below.

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Every ProphetX model

ModelGraded picksHit rateUnitsROI (±95%)

Sharp Edge+1%+ edge17,06648.5%-34.2u-0.2% ROI · 17,066-0.2%±1.7
Stat Model (Unders)1%+ edge7,23447.8%-137.8u-2.1% ROI · 7,234-2.1%±2.5
Stat Model1%+ edge8,77547.6%-271.4u-3.3% ROI · 8,775-3.3%±2.3
Sharp Edge1%+ edge39,62044.4%-1729.2u-4.7% ROI · 39,620-4.7%±1.3

Get the ProphetX picks that beat the fair price

SickFade compares every prop against a fair price built from the books with the best track record, and flags the ones that beat it. Every play is graded here, wins and losses.

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