Bookmaker track record
Every Bookmaker pick SickFade has posted, graded model by model, including the ones that lose. Updated hourly.
Best model ROI
+5.5%
Stat Model (Unders) · 2,661 picks
ROI, all models
+0.1%
27,761 graded picks
Units, all models
+26.3u
Models in profit
3 of 4
each with 1,000+ picks
“All models” combines every model on Bookmaker, including the ones that lose. Graded at 1 unit per pick, the price when we first posted it, and each model's minimum edge (3% for most, 1% on exchanges).
How to read these numbers
The numbers
- Units
- Each pick is graded as a 1-unit bet. +100u means up 100 bets' worth.
- ROI
- Profit per unit bet. +3% is 3 cents per dollar over time; the ± is the likely range.
What counts
- Edge threshold
- Only counts when our fair price beat the book by the model's minimum: 3% for most, 1% on exchanges.
- Pushes
- Ties. In the record, but not in hit rate or ROI.
How to judge it
- Sample size
- Judge a model on 1,000+ picks, not a weekend.
- Losing stretches
- Losing weeks, even months, are normal for a model with a real edge.
New to this? Here's how value betting works, explained with one example.
Best Bookmaker model with 1,000+ picks
Bookmaker Picks: Stat Model (Unders): 2,661 picks, +135.1u, +5.5% ROI. Every model is in the table below.
Every Bookmaker model
- Stat Model (Unders)3%+ edge2,66151.8%+135.1u+5.5% ROI · 2,661+5.5%±4.1
- Stat Model3%+ edge4,24650.9%+134.1u+3.5% ROI · 4,246+3.5%±3.3
- Sharp Edge+3%+ edge7,40151.9%+17.8u+0.3% ROI · 7,401+0.3%±2.4
- Sharp Edge3%+ edge13,45343.9%-260.6u-2.1% ROI · 13,453-2.1%±2.4
Get the Bookmaker picks that beat the fair price
SickFade compares every prop against a fair price built from the books with the best track record, and flags the ones that beat it. Every play is graded here, wins and losses.
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Not sure what +EV means? Read the 7-minute explainer.
Learn how it works
Short guides that explain the numbers on this page.
- Start here · 7 min readWhat Is Expected Value (EV) in Sports Betting?Value betting explained with one example: why the same bet has different prices, why the best price is not always +EV, how a fair price is built, and how arbitrage works.
- Guide 2 · 6 min readWhat Is a Unit in Sports Betting? Why Pros Never Talk in DollarsA unit is your standard bet size as a percentage of bankroll. Here is why tracking results in units, not dollars, is the honest way to measure betting performance.
- Guide 3 · 8 min readDo Sharps Bet Parlays?Parlays amplify your edge, but they also raise variance, which slows bankroll growth. We work the math on 2 straights vs 1 parlay and show exactly where each one wins.
- Guide 4Are overs or unders better?Player prop ROI by side and sport, from our graded picks.
Other sportsbooks
Past results don't guarantee future results. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.