NoVig track record

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Every NoVig pick SickFade has posted, graded model by model, including the ones that lose. Updated hourly.

Best model ROI

+1.9%

Stat Model (Unders) · 8,773 picks

ROI, all models

-1.7%

115,149 graded picks

Units, all models

-1837.5u

Models in profit

2 of 4

each with 1,000+ picks

“All models” combines every model on NoVig, including the ones that lose. Graded at 1 unit per pick, the price when we first posted it, and each model's minimum edge (3% for most, 1% on exchanges).

How to read these numbersUnits, ROI, sample size

The numbers

Units: Each pick is graded as a 1-unit bet. +100u means up 100 bets' worth.
ROI: Profit per unit bet. +3% is 3 cents per dollar over time; the ± is the likely range.

What counts

Edge threshold: Only counts when our fair price beat the book by the model's minimum: 3% for most, 1% on exchanges.
Pushes: Ties. In the record, but not in hit rate or ROI.

How to judge it

Sample size: Judge a model on 1,000+ picks, not a weekend.
Losing stretches: Losing weeks, even months, are normal for a model with a real edge.

New to this? Here's how value betting works, explained with one example.

Best NoVig model with 1,000+ picks

NoVig Picks: Stat Model (Unders): 8,773 picks, +160.3u, +1.9% ROI. Every model is in the table below.

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Every NoVig model

ModelGraded picksHit rateUnitsROI (±95%)

Stat Model (Unders)1%+ edge8,77351.9%+160.3u+1.9% ROI · 8,773+1.9%±2.1
Stat Model1%+ edge11,84350.9%+81.0u+0.7% ROI · 11,843+0.7%±1.9
Sharp Edge+1%+ edge32,06751.6%-175.4u-0.6% ROI · 32,067-0.6%±1.1
Sharp Edge1%+ edge62,46647.1%-1903.3u-3.3% ROI · 62,466-3.3%±0.9

Get the NoVig picks that beat the fair price

SickFade compares every prop against a fair price built from the books with the best track record, and flags the ones that beat it. Every play is graded here, wins and losses.

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