Fliff track record
Every Fliff pick SickFade has posted, graded model by model, including the ones that lose. Updated hourly.
Best model ROI
-0.5%
Stat Model (Unders) · 4,205 picks
ROI, all models
-3.3%
28,598 graded picks
Units, all models
-894.9u
Models in profit
0 of 4
each with 1,000+ picks
“All models” combines every model on Fliff, including the ones that lose. Graded at 1 unit per pick, the price when we first posted it, and each model's minimum edge (3% for most, 1% on exchanges).
How to read these numbers
The numbers
- Units
- Each pick is graded as a 1-unit bet. +100u means up 100 bets' worth.
- ROI
- Profit per unit bet. +3% is 3 cents per dollar over time; the ± is the likely range.
What counts
- Edge threshold
- Only counts when our fair price beat the book by the model's minimum: 3% for most, 1% on exchanges.
- Pushes
- Ties. In the record, but not in hit rate or ROI.
How to judge it
- Sample size
- Judge a model on 1,000+ picks, not a weekend.
- Losing stretches
- Losing weeks, even months, are normal for a model with a real edge.
New to this? Here's how value betting works, explained with one example.
Best Fliff model with 1,000+ picks
Fliff Picks: Stat Model (Unders): 4,205 picks, -18.9u, -0.5% ROI. Every model is in the table below.
Every Fliff model
- Stat Model (Unders)3%+ edge4,20553.5%-18.9u-0.5% ROI · 4,205-0.5%±2.9
- Stat Model3%+ edge6,76752.6%-150.4u-2.4% ROI · 6,767-2.4%±2.3
- Sharp Edge+3%+ edge6,92553.3%-158.2u-2.4% ROI · 6,925-2.4%±2.3
- Sharp Edge3%+ edge10,70148.5%-567.4u-5.7% ROI · 10,701-5.7%±2.1
Get the Fliff picks that beat the fair price
SickFade compares every prop against a fair price built from the books with the best track record, and flags the ones that beat it. Every play is graded here, wins and losses.
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Not sure what +EV means? Read the 7-minute explainer.
Learn how it works
Short guides that explain the numbers on this page.
- Start here · 7 min readWhat Is Expected Value (EV) in Sports Betting?Value betting explained with one example: why the same bet has different prices, why the best price is not always +EV, how a fair price is built, and how arbitrage works.
- Guide 2 · 6 min readWhat Is a Unit in Sports Betting? Why Pros Never Talk in DollarsA unit is your standard bet size as a percentage of bankroll. Here is why tracking results in units, not dollars, is the honest way to measure betting performance.
- Guide 3 · 8 min readDo Sharps Bet Parlays?Parlays amplify your edge, but they also raise variance, which slows bankroll growth. We work the math on 2 straights vs 1 parlay and show exactly where each one wins.
- Guide 4Are overs or unders better?Player prop ROI by side and sport, from our graded picks.
Past results don't guarantee future results. Not betting advice. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.